| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
155,000 |
0.790 |
$122,527.50 |
$45,027.50 |
+58.1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
155,000 |
0.209 |
$32,472.50 |
$-45,027.50 |
-58.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
21,362 |
0.976 |
$20,838.89 |
$-161.67 |
-0.8% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
8,869 |
0.693 |
$6,145.43 |
$1,138.11 |
+22.7% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
6,252 |
0.935 |
$5,845.81 |
$1,469.27 |
+33.6% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
No |
5,034 |
0.765 |
$3,851.08 |
$-173.09 |
-4.3% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
No |
4,610 |
0.630 |
$2,904.22 |
$-414.89 |
-12.5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
733 |
0.978 |
$717.20 |
$35.20 |
+5.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,474 |
0.369 |
$544.71 |
$-146.07 |
-21.1% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.180 |
$540.00 |
$60.00 |
+12.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.260 |
$520.00 |
$-20.00 |
-3.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
715 |
0.520 |
$371.57 |
$14.29 |
+4.0% |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? |
No |
245 |
0.929 |
$227.95 |
$5.15 |
+2.3% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,796 |
0.125 |
$224.55 |
$51.43 |
+29.7% |
| Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election? |
No |
71 |
0.905 |
$64.25 |
$0.35 |
+0.6% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
86 |
0.635 |
$54.61 |
$13.33 |
+32.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
39 |
0.870 |
$34.28 |
$0.79 |
+2.4% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
31 |
0.895 |
$27.90 |
$4.21 |
+17.8% |
| Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
5,100 |
0.005 |
$25.50 |
$5.10 |
+25.0% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
No |
29 |
0.875 |
$25.06 |
$0.43 |
+1.7% |
| Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
4,814 |
0.004 |
$21.66 |
$-1.65 |
-7.1% |
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
67 |
0.068 |
$4.54 |
$0.20 |
+4.6% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
5 |
0.745 |
$3.73 |
$0.42 |
+12.9% |