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ckwww

0x86974dde10087a6ff34978364ccd67dbea21190d
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$74
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
98%
105W / 2L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
98%
107W / 2L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
111
across 70 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$1.13
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
15.17
$80 won / $5 lost
Reward / Risk
0.47
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$4
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,452 · all-time $429,856

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 81.4% 472W/108L 320 $121,459
🌤 Weather 95.9% 47W/2L 34 $8,708
🔬 Science 100.0% 10W/0L 4 $1,116
🎬 Culture 1 $9
🏛 Politics 1 $84
💵 Economy 1 $84

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

16 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 1,800 0.380 $684.00 $98.63 +16.8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5? No 655 1.000 $654.49 $1.39 +0.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 800 0.695 $555.92 $-34.08 -5.8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5? No 480 1.000 $479.62 $0.24 +0.1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 5? No 323 1.000 $323.17 $0.29 +0.1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5? No 273 1.000 $273.23 $0.14 +0.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5? No 179 1.000 $178.68 $2.32 +1.3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on August 5? No 119 1.000 $118.93 $0.06 +0.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5? No 66 1.000 $66.45 $0.03 +0.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on August 5? No 50 1.000 $50.44 $0.03 +0.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5? No 50 1.000 $50.33 $0.23 +0.5%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 30 0.325 $9.75 $0.75 +8.3%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 8 0.420 $3.44 $-1.96 -36.4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 44 0.025 $1.07 $-5.03 -82.5%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 43 0.005 $0.24 $-9.76 -97.6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 44 0.004 $0.15 $-6.85 -97.8%