| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
73 |
0.850 |
$61.72 |
$11.72 |
+23.4% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
241 |
0.230 |
$55.47 |
$10.55 |
+23.5% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
77 |
0.700 |
$53.82 |
$3.83 |
+7.7% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
57 |
0.885 |
$50.86 |
$0.86 |
+1.7% |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
52 |
0.929 |
$48.46 |
$38.27 |
+375.5% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
59 |
0.815 |
$48.19 |
$-2.01 |
-4.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
58 |
0.685 |
$39.54 |
$2.64 |
+7.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
247 |
0.125 |
$30.92 |
$3.46 |
+12.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
No |
75 |
0.330 |
$24.85 |
$-24.00 |
-49.1% |
| Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
55 |
0.450 |
$24.59 |
$19.54 |
+387.0% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
68 |
0.350 |
$23.64 |
$16.57 |
+234.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
544 |
0.043 |
$23.61 |
$-8.41 |
-26.3% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
23 |
0.982 |
$22.37 |
$10.37 |
+86.5% |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
56 |
0.385 |
$21.49 |
$16.64 |
+342.4% |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
92 |
0.230 |
$21.19 |
$8.80 |
+71.0% |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Yes |
47 |
0.435 |
$20.62 |
$13.51 |
+190.0% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
33 |
0.590 |
$19.47 |
$10.71 |
+122.1% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? |
No |
26 |
0.715 |
$18.88 |
$4.77 |
+33.8% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.595 |
$18.06 |
$-3.11 |
-14.7% |
| Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 7? |
No |
17 |
0.999 |
$16.82 |
$0.31 |
+1.9% |
| Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 7? |
No |
17 |
0.994 |
$16.75 |
$0.24 |
+1.4% |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? |
No |
25 |
0.600 |
$15.23 |
$3.05 |
+25.0% |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
40 |
0.340 |
$13.61 |
$9.57 |
+237.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
3,329 |
0.004 |
$13.32 |
$-3.21 |
-19.4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
14 |
0.895 |
$12.75 |
$1.92 |
+17.8% |