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Trader leaderboard/OneBadBet

OneBadBet

0x84f820558e744c1debe52f499a919c115c3b0ff2
PnL (30d)
−$98
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$34
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
61%
115W / 72L · 209 open
Win Return (30d)
49%
193W / 203L
Trades (30d)
396
across 57 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
−$3.37
avg win $12 · loss $33
Profit Factor
0.70
$233 won / $331 lost
Reward / Risk
0.37
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $1,589,782

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 61.5% 115W/72L 57 $30,115
₿ Crypto 100.0% 2W/0L 2 $736
💵 Economy 100.0% 2W/0L 1 $497
🏛 Politics 1 $478

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 2,500 0.935 $2,337.51 $62.51 +2.7%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 2,000 0.977 $1,953.00 $93.00 +5.0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 2,000 0.875 $1,750.00 $25.00 +1.4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2,079 0.823 $1,710.31 $73.45 +4.5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1,514 0.852 $1,289.63 $241.43 +23.0%
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? No 1,015 0.969 $983.46 $8.59 +0.9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 1,000 0.945 $945.00 $12.50 +1.3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 1,000 0.924 $924.36 $5.12 +0.6%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 1,000 0.875 $875.00 $-47.50 -5.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 1,000 0.835 $835.00 $31.25 +3.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 741 0.949 $702.90 $4.52 +0.6%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? Yes 700 0.987 $690.24 $40.30 +6.2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 750 0.905 $678.50 $104.21 +18.1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 689 0.900 $619.86 $41.62 +7.2%
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 640 0.940 $601.56 $12.80 +2.2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 542 0.970 $525.80 $7.24 +1.4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 500 0.963 $481.25 $3.25 +0.7%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 500 0.945 $472.50 $2.50 +0.5%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 488 0.765 $373.09 $1.56 +0.4%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 468 0.715 $334.62 $-48.02 -12.5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 357 0.905 $323.21 $23.21 +7.7%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 300 0.987 $295.94 $8.55 +3.0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 250 0.958 $239.38 $-0.38 -0.2%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2,164 0.095 $205.59 $-78.75 -27.7%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 468 0.285 $133.47 $73.63 +123.0%