PnL (30d)

−$119

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$52

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

31%

22W / 49L · 14 open

Win Return (30d)

28%

24W / 61L

Trades (30d)

85

across 38 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$4.11

avg win $23 · loss $29

Profit Factor

0.73

$320 won / $440 lost

Reward / Risk

0.78

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$138

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	31.0% 22W/49L	38	$919
💵 Economy	100.0% 3W/0L	6	$71
₿ Crypto	100.0% 2W/0L	5	$61
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	3	$25

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	134	0.365	$48.93	$-1.07	-2.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	14	0.825	$11.96	$1.96	+19.6%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	15	0.715	$10.83	$0.83	+8.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	11	0.835	$9.38	$-0.62	-6.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	13	0.695	$9.14	$-0.86	-8.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	29	0.195	$5.62	$-14.38	-71.9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	7	0.835	$5.49	$0.49	+9.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	Yes	42	0.120	$5.04	$-14.96	-74.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	Yes	66	0.065	$4.29	$-15.71	-78.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	15	0.175	$2.61	$-7.39	-73.9%