PnL (30d)

−$6

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

29%

2W / 5L · 22 open

Win Return (30d)

62%

18W / 11L

Trades (30d)

29

across 21 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

−$1.04

avg win $2 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.22

$2 won / $8 lost

Reward / Risk

1.10

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.1% 8W/11L	54	$1,359
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	10	$276
💵 Economy	—	8	$242
🤖 Tech	100.0% 1W/0L	7	$143
₿ Crypto	—	7	$156
🎬 Culture	—	3	$204
🔬 Science	—	1	$119
⚽ Sports	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$7

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

119 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	470	0.920	$432.40	$122.80	+39.7%
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	300	0.956	$286.79	$17.80	+6.6%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	300	0.885	$265.50	$5.00	+1.9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	260	0.945	$245.70	$10.90	+4.6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	249	0.963	$239.38	$19.52	+8.9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	230	0.935	$215.05	$22.95	+11.9%
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	222	0.890	$197.40	$32.24	+19.5%
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	190	0.935	$177.65	$16.85	+10.5%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	190	0.915	$173.84	$28.65	+19.7%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	160	0.963	$154.00	$7.60	+5.2%
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	183	0.790	$144.34	$23.53	+19.5%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	140	0.918	$128.59	$8.63	+7.2%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	127	0.955	$121.21	$5.21	+4.5%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	178	0.675	$119.95	$39.84	+49.7%
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	127	0.900	$114.51	$5.35	+4.9%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	130	0.853	$110.57	$3.28	+3.1%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	114	0.930	$106.34	$12.72	+13.6%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	110	0.938	$103.18	$7.26	+7.6%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	100	0.961	$96.05	$3.35	+3.6%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	100	0.945	$94.50	$9.50	+11.2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	100	0.925	$92.50	$1.50	+1.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?	Yes	100	0.920	$92.00	$-1.00	-1.1%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?	No	100	0.920	$92.00	$1.00	+1.1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	90	0.967	$86.98	$1.73	+2.0%
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	90	0.935	$84.15	$7.65	+10.0%