Log in
Trader leaderboard/prognozu

prognozu

0x8199d2d2813a60bc15580cc97f2e0e54c73abb6d
PnL (30d)
+$133
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$244
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
62%
76W / 47L · 278 open
Win Return (30d)
74%
293W / 103L · 5 open
Trades (30d)
401
across 57 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
+$6.65
avg win $9 · loss $12
Profit Factor
6.44
$158 won / $24 lost
Reward / Risk
0.72
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$21
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $4,282 · all-time $511,269

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 61.8% 76W/47L 57 $33,601
💵 Economy 100.0% 3W/0L 11 $1,426
₿ Crypto 8 $1,108
🏛 Politics 100.0% 3W/0L 4 $2,074

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 3,820 0.925 $3,533.66 $201.27 +6.0%
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? No 1,650 0.975 $1,607.99 $23.34 +1.5%
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 1,523 0.855 $1,301.96 $38.53 +3.0%
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? No 1,053 0.982 $1,033.98 $31.85 +3.2%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 302 0.905 $273.01 $7.54 +2.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Yes 1,151 0.205 $235.86 $-467.57 -66.5%
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? No 200 0.940 $188.01 $8.00 +4.4%
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? No 100 0.915 $91.51 $2.50 +2.8%
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 211 0.275 $58.02 $-63.88 -52.4%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 40 0.977 $38.66 $3.69 +10.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.745 $37.25 $-2.75 -6.9%
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.600 $30.00 $-0.50 -1.6%
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.545 $27.25 $3.75 +16.0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 27 0.981 $26.50 $0.47 +1.8%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 200 0.130 $26.00 $-27.50 -51.4%
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by December 31, 2026? Yes 237 0.105 $24.91 $-12.70 -33.8%
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 30 0.739 $22.16 $1.09 +5.2%
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027? Yes 50 0.335 $16.75 $-2.75 -14.1%
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.330 $16.50 $-5.00 -23.3%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.290 $14.50 $-4.00 -21.6%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.235 $11.75 $-3.75 -24.2%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 13 0.885 $11.48 $2.27 +24.6%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 50 0.160 $8.00 $-8.00 -50.0%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Yes 51 0.125 $6.38 $-1.79 -21.9%
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes 54 0.080 $4.28 $-4.32 -50.2%