| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
5,218 |
0.910 |
$4,748.54 |
$1,173.90 |
+32.8% |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? |
No |
4,995 |
0.940 |
$4,695.65 |
$779.85 |
+19.9% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? |
No |
3,752 |
0.962 |
$3,607.66 |
$316.33 |
+9.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
4,360 |
0.725 |
$3,161.00 |
$141.78 |
+4.7% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? |
No |
1,900 |
0.974 |
$1,850.45 |
$379.64 |
+25.8% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
2,498 |
0.465 |
$1,161.36 |
$-216.90 |
-15.7% |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? |
No |
1,015 |
0.942 |
$955.98 |
$405.82 |
+73.8% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.933 |
$933.27 |
$175.01 |
+23.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5,050 |
0.184 |
$931.72 |
$-562.00 |
-37.6% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? |
No |
969 |
0.945 |
$915.20 |
$1.39 |
+0.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.865 |
$908.24 |
$89.25 |
+10.9% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? |
No |
993 |
0.900 |
$894.11 |
$522.81 |
+140.8% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
2,200 |
0.375 |
$824.84 |
$48.48 |
+6.2% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.540 |
$810.53 |
$294.62 |
+57.1% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
1,000 |
0.745 |
$744.98 |
$-20.00 |
-2.6% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
1,789 |
0.375 |
$670.76 |
$95.72 |
+16.6% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? |
No |
604 |
0.974 |
$587.88 |
$11.98 |
+2.1% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.270 |
$540.00 |
$-108.99 |
-16.8% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
21,000 |
0.025 |
$533.41 |
$-289.55 |
-35.2% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
No |
883 |
0.535 |
$472.20 |
$101.50 |
+27.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
500 |
0.835 |
$417.50 |
$37.50 |
+9.9% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.971 |
$388.20 |
$8.52 |
+2.2% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
600 |
0.540 |
$324.30 |
$-18.30 |
-5.3% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July? |
No |
475 |
0.675 |
$320.62 |
$-16.62 |
-4.9% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? |
Yes |
343 |
0.935 |
$320.43 |
$215.14 |
+204.3% |