PnL (30d)

+$6

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$8

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+48.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

60%

3W / 2L · 22 open

Win Return (30d)

93%

25W / 2L

Trades (30d)

27

across 11 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$1.53

avg win $4 · loss $1

Profit Factor

3.27

$9 won / $3 lost

Reward / Risk

3.27

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	26.3% 147W/411L	507	$1,306
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/1L	11	$23
🏛 Politics	—	7	$20
⚽ Sports	—	2	$5
🌤 Weather	0.0% 0W/2L	2	$2
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

28 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	48	0.939	$44.91	$8.86	+24.6%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	74	0.175	$12.95	$-8.40	-39.4%
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	32	0.220	$7.05	$-5.28	-42.8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	31	0.209	$6.49	$-1.10	-14.5%
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?	Yes	63	0.083	$5.21	$-1.55	-22.9%
Will anyone say "Evict" during Big Brother E15?	No	31	0.145	$4.50	$3.25	+262.5%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	No	30	0.140	$4.20	$1.20	+40.0%
Will anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E15?	No	31	0.130	$4.03	$2.79	+225.0%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	29	0.125	$3.62	$-8.98	-71.3%
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	18	0.200	$3.60	$0.36	+11.1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)	Chicago White Sox	6	0.645	$3.60	$0.20	+5.7%
Will Milva die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	Yes	6	0.550	$3.53	$2.12	+150.0%
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)	Henan FC	16	0.200	$3.27	$0.27	+9.0%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-07-25?	Yes	7	0.450	$3.21	$2.21	+221.4%
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?	Yes	18	0.150	$2.70	$-5.40	-66.7%
Will Trump say "Potato" in August?	Yes	8	0.285	$2.34	$0.37	+18.7%
Rakuten Monkeys vs. TSG Hawks	Rakuten Monkeys	7	0.275	$1.97	$-0.68	-25.7%
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Yes	32	0.057	$1.80	$0.98	+119.6%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	11	0.150	$1.62	$-0.22	-11.8%
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	41	0.038	$1.56	$-1.21	-43.8%
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	38	0.029	$1.11	$-0.42	-27.3%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	16	0.055	$0.88	$-7.60	-89.6%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	25	0.029	$0.71	$-4.29	-85.8%
Will anyone say "Loyal" or "Loyalty" during Big Brother E15?	Yes	1	0.510	$0.64	$0.59	+1174.8%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	9	0.055	$0.49	$-2.02	-80.4%