| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
524,037 |
0.835 |
$437,571.12 |
$67,908.94 |
+18.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
42,405 |
0.950 |
$40,284.39 |
$2,686.80 |
+7.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
26,764 |
0.895 |
$23,954.12 |
$3,818.90 |
+19.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
22,398 |
0.930 |
$20,830.49 |
$1,471.60 |
+7.6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
21,506 |
0.935 |
$20,108.05 |
$1,372.14 |
+7.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
16,239 |
0.870 |
$14,128.20 |
$2,550.25 |
+22.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
12,848 |
0.981 |
$12,597.00 |
$290.02 |
+2.4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
11,827 |
0.745 |
$8,810.86 |
$396.87 |
+4.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
10,234 |
0.845 |
$8,648.05 |
$396.06 |
+4.8% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
7,308 |
0.993 |
$7,253.15 |
$522.82 |
+7.8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? |
No |
6,683 |
0.972 |
$6,492.98 |
$277.37 |
+4.5% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? |
No |
5,433 |
0.955 |
$5,185.52 |
$141.53 |
+2.8% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
5,657 |
0.905 |
$5,119.34 |
$509.35 |
+11.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Yes |
3,630 |
0.967 |
$3,510.09 |
$411.72 |
+13.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
2,803 |
0.895 |
$2,508.73 |
$270.73 |
+12.1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? |
No |
2,487 |
0.905 |
$2,250.92 |
$111.92 |
+5.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
No |
2,255 |
0.963 |
$2,170.29 |
$73.28 |
+3.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
1,996 |
0.966 |
$1,927.94 |
$143.94 |
+8.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,430 |
0.785 |
$1,907.37 |
$284.29 |
+17.5% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
1,918 |
0.926 |
$1,777.36 |
$104.36 |
+6.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
1,421 |
0.885 |
$1,257.52 |
$35.52 |
+2.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
1,372 |
0.860 |
$1,180.03 |
$35.03 |
+3.1% |
| Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
No |
1,178 |
0.925 |
$1,089.49 |
$21.49 |
+2.0% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? |
No |
1,465 |
0.740 |
$1,083.99 |
$183.99 |
+20.4% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,747 |
0.590 |
$1,031.00 |
$-163.84 |
-13.7% |