| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
66 |
0.840 |
$55.57 |
$-0.32 |
-0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
26 |
0.695 |
$17.95 |
$-1.43 |
-7.4% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
19 |
0.745 |
$14.13 |
$3.15 |
+28.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
14 |
0.865 |
$11.95 |
$0.07 |
+0.6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
14 |
0.735 |
$10.30 |
$2.30 |
+28.8% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.997 |
$7.35 |
$0.33 |
+4.7% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
7 |
0.820 |
$5.95 |
$-0.07 |
-1.2% |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? |
Yes |
8 |
0.700 |
$5.69 |
$-1.54 |
-21.3% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
8 |
0.725 |
$5.56 |
$-0.95 |
-14.5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.994 |
$5.40 |
$0.25 |
+4.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
14 |
0.375 |
$5.30 |
$-0.16 |
-3.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
5 |
0.987 |
$4.60 |
$0.14 |
+3.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
6 |
0.785 |
$4.52 |
$1.55 |
+51.9% |
| Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.680 |
$4.33 |
$-0.90 |
-17.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.870 |
$4.24 |
$0.73 |
+20.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
10 |
0.405 |
$4.00 |
$-0.12 |
-2.8% |
| Will Todd Blanche be the next Attorney General? |
Yes |
4 |
0.957 |
$3.83 |
$-0.01 |
-0.3% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.625 |
$3.31 |
$-1.19 |
-26.5% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
No |
3 |
0.983 |
$3.04 |
$-0.01 |
-0.3% |
| Will Trump say "Middle East" in August? |
Yes |
3 |
0.997 |
$2.98 |
$-0.00 |
-0.2% |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.576 |
$2.33 |
$-1.66 |
-41.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
3 |
0.705 |
$2.29 |
$0.44 |
+23.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.515 |
$2.20 |
$-0.19 |
-8.0% |
| Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31? |
No |
2 |
0.969 |
$2.02 |
$0.06 |
+3.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
2 |
0.999 |
$2.02 |
$0.03 |
+1.3% |