PnL (30d)

−$143

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$12

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-21.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

31%

21W / 47L · 15 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

21W / 62L

Trades (30d)

83

across 13 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$14.33

avg win $18 · loss $28

Profit Factor

0.27

$53 won / $197 lost

Reward / Risk

0.63

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$59

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.5% 113W/141L	91	$5,001
🏛 Politics	83.3% 5W/1L	4	$263
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$59

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

16 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	450	0.155	$69.75	$-97.25	-58.2%
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	220	0.130	$28.60	$-29.60	-50.9%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?	Yes	267	0.100	$26.70	$-17.56	-39.7%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026?	Yes	80	0.150	$12.00	$-6.40	-34.8%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?	Yes	148	0.080	$11.82	$-17.30	-59.4%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	206	0.052	$10.72	$-3.58	-25.1%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026?	Yes	70	0.135	$9.46	$-7.56	-44.4%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026?	Yes	80	0.095	$7.60	$-5.20	-40.6%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026?	Yes	60	0.120	$7.20	$-5.40	-42.9%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?	Yes	29	0.186	$5.34	$4.85	+997.0%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026?	Yes	60	0.080	$4.82	$-2.21	-31.5%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?	Yes	40	0.095	$3.80	$-1.80	-32.1%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.110	$2.21	$0.20	+10.0%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?	Yes	20	0.105	$2.11	$0.30	+16.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	419	0.002	$0.63	$-1.47	-70.0%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?	Yes	60	0.009	$0.54	$-28.12	-98.1%