PnL (30d)

−$132

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$29

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

30%

247W / 567L · 105 open

Win Return (30d)

28%

256W / 658L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

919

across 162 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$0.94

avg win $13 · loss $6

Profit Factor

0.79

$485 won / $617 lost

Reward / Risk

2.19

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$238

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	34.2% 714W/1,376L	424	$10,027
🌤 Weather	30.3% 247W/567L	162	$3,436
₿ Crypto	66.7% 8W/4L	3	$93
⚽ Sports	100.0% 2W/0L	1	$16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	38	1.000	$38.09	$21.78	+133.5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	25	1.000	$24.51	$20.15	+461.8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	59	0.108	$6.39	$2.86	+81.3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.00	$3.46	+226.0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.745	$3.73	$0.92	+33.0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.595	$2.97	$-0.13	-4.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 7?	No	6	0.455	$2.73	$-0.15	-5.2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 6?	No	5	0.405	$1.97	$-0.80	-28.9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	43	0.040	$1.69	$-9.50	-84.9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 5?	Yes	12	0.017	$0.20	$-4.71	-95.9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 5?	Yes	70	0.001	$0.03	$-26.57	-99.9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	30	0.001	$0.01	$-1.80	-99.2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	19	0.001	$0.01	$-5.49	-99.8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 5?	Yes	17	0.001	$0.01	$-1.09	-99.2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 5?	Yes	17	0.001	$0.01	$-2.28	-99.6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 5?	No	11	0.001	$0.01	$-1.00	-99.5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	9	0.001	$0.00	$-0.45	-99.0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	7	0.001	$0.00	$-2.20	-99.8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.001	$0.00	$-0.75	-99.7%