PnL (30d)

−$30

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-15.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

71%

24W / 10L · 1 open

Win Return (30d)

69%

24W / 11L

Trades (30d)

35

across 19 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$1.66

avg win $0 · loss $5

Profit Factor

0.15

$5 won / $35 lost

Reward / Risk

0.10

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	80.9% 382W/90L	259	$3,353
💵 Economy	86.7% 26W/4L	16	$292
₿ Crypto	75.0% 12W/4L	11	$194
🎬 Culture	—	1	$10

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Rubén José Ramírez Mateo win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	10	0.990	$9.89	$-0.01	-0.1%
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	7	0.765	$5.36	$-0.25	-4.4%
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	19	0.285	$5.30	$2.88	+119.2%
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	18	0.275	$5.07	$0.09	+1.9%
Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	5	0.994	$4.97	$0.12	+2.4%
Will Jessica Viviana Linares Romero win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	5	0.956	$4.73	$0.03	+0.7%
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	4	0.930	$4.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?	Yes	3	0.969	$2.99	$-0.01	-0.5%
Will Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	19	0.130	$2.41	$-0.19	-7.1%