| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
40 |
0.790 |
$31.60 |
$-1.60 |
-4.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
30 |
0.969 |
$29.07 |
$2.07 |
+7.7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
No |
30 |
0.885 |
$26.55 |
$0.75 |
+2.9% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
No |
60 |
0.430 |
$25.80 |
$-3.60 |
-12.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.635 |
$19.05 |
$-1.95 |
-9.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.540 |
$16.21 |
$-7.63 |
-32.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.320 |
$15.99 |
$-10.99 |
-40.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
20 |
0.695 |
$13.90 |
$-0.50 |
-3.5% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
150 |
0.065 |
$9.75 |
$-5.25 |
-35.0% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.385 |
$9.63 |
$-1.38 |
-12.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
10 |
0.835 |
$8.35 |
$-0.45 |
-5.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? |
Yes |
10 |
0.720 |
$6.92 |
$1.25 |
+22.0% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? |
Yes |
80 |
0.075 |
$5.98 |
$0.40 |
+7.1% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.275 |
$4.12 |
$-4.88 |
-54.2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
Yes |
38 |
0.045 |
$1.69 |
$-9.56 |
-85.0% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.038 |
$1.54 |
$-20.46 |
-93.0% |