| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
17,299 |
0.966 |
$16,711.20 |
$4,015.64 |
+31.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
15,137 |
0.930 |
$14,077.34 |
$2,435.99 |
+20.9% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
12,562 |
0.981 |
$12,316.93 |
$744.39 |
+6.4% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
20,215 |
0.395 |
$7,984.98 |
$1,108.44 |
+16.1% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? |
No |
7,407 |
0.968 |
$7,165.89 |
$1,280.47 |
+21.8% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? |
No |
7,641 |
0.885 |
$6,762.26 |
$1,229.27 |
+22.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
6,278 |
0.875 |
$5,492.84 |
$1,577.71 |
+40.3% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? |
No |
5,716 |
0.919 |
$5,255.74 |
$370.74 |
+7.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
5,906 |
0.625 |
$3,691.55 |
$1,538.37 |
+71.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
3,291 |
1.000 |
$3,289.31 |
$854.00 |
+35.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
3,209 |
0.875 |
$2,808.05 |
$-6.86 |
-0.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
3,824 |
0.660 |
$2,524.02 |
$797.23 |
+46.2% |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? |
Yes |
3,136 |
0.695 |
$2,179.51 |
$1,690.96 |
+346.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
2,736 |
0.625 |
$1,710.19 |
$60.77 |
+3.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,032 |
0.785 |
$1,595.15 |
$457.32 |
+40.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,545 |
0.989 |
$1,527.60 |
$115.25 |
+8.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
2,094 |
0.705 |
$1,475.95 |
$431.28 |
+41.3% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
1,924 |
0.580 |
$1,115.79 |
$87.38 |
+8.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
1,089 |
0.905 |
$985.46 |
$182.78 |
+22.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
1,500 |
0.520 |
$780.01 |
$315.00 |
+67.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,511 |
0.443 |
$669.38 |
$154.64 |
+30.0% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
753 |
0.815 |
$613.85 |
$33.82 |
+5.8% |
| Will Tanveer Shahnawaz win the 2026 Beaches—East York by-election? |
Yes |
500 |
0.956 |
$478.00 |
$8.00 |
+1.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? |
Yes |
2,728 |
0.175 |
$477.35 |
$240.37 |
+101.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
500 |
0.940 |
$470.00 |
$30.00 |
+6.8% |