PnL (30d)

+$8

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+5.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

47%

8W / 9L · 33 open

Win Return (30d)

16%

8W / 42L

Trades (30d)

50

across 4 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

+$2.82

avg win $5 · loss $1

Profit Factor

7.70

$10 won / $1 lost

Reward / Risk

3.85

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	74.9% 1,374W/460L	368	$12,203
🌤 Weather	88.0% 44W/6L	15	$302
₿ Crypto	100.0% 3W/0L	9	$152
💵 Economy	77.8% 7W/2L	8	$136
🏛 Politics	66.7% 4W/2L	3	$82

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	550	0.555	$305.38	$-11.49	-3.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	450	0.505	$227.25	$-72.55	-24.2%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	4,500	0.050	$224.98	$-153.74	-40.6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	210	0.810	$170.10	$36.89	+27.7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	235	0.370	$86.95	$14.63	+20.2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	120	0.695	$83.38	$10.79	+14.9%
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	600	0.115	$68.97	$-14.29	-17.2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	131	0.285	$37.40	$5.30	+16.5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?	Yes	19	0.570	$10.77	$1.32	+14.0%
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	50	0.210	$10.50	$2.10	+25.0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	150	0.065	$9.75	$-58.65	-85.7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 5?	Yes	10	0.960	$9.60	$3.13	+48.3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	0.160	$9.60	$0.07	+0.7%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	60	0.155	$9.30	$-5.93	-38.9%
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Yes	20	0.320	$6.40	$-7.05	-52.4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	10	0.535	$5.35	$-0.05	-0.9%
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	5	0.685	$3.42	$0.42	+14.2%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	0.045	$2.70	$-15.01	-84.7%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	50	0.028	$1.37	$-0.62	-31.2%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10	0.117	$1.17	$-4.66	-79.9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 5?	Yes	20	0.035	$0.70	$-0.10	-12.5%