PnL (30d)

−$800

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$195

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-19.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

5%

9W / 183L · 102 open

Win Return (30d)

8%

23W / 271L

Trades (30d)

294

across 37 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

−$30.77

avg win $70 · loss $44

Profit Factor

0.21

$211 won / $1,011 lost

Reward / Risk

1.60

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$35

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	4.7% 9W/183L	37	$5,930
🤖 Tech	—	2	$49
🏛 Politics	—	2	$99
🔬 Science	—	1	$38
💵 Economy	—	1	$11

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

50 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	1,631	0.285	$464.58	$-103.88	-18.3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	1,400	0.165	$231.00	$-29.99	-11.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	2,704	0.080	$216.31	$-276.94	-56.1%
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	No	237	0.790	$186.89	$144.31	+338.9%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	1,950	0.065	$126.75	$-179.25	-58.6%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	1,800	0.062	$111.60	$-135.75	-54.9%
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?	Yes	304	0.350	$106.53	$-5.30	-4.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	200	0.375	$75.00	$38.00	+102.7%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	118	0.625	$73.75	$38.35	+108.3%
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31?	Yes	115	0.545	$62.67	$24.48	+64.1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Yes	1,190	0.050	$59.50	$-1.01	-1.7%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	474	0.114	$53.80	$-88.88	-62.3%
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31?	Yes	121	0.435	$52.46	$11.33	+27.6%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	698	0.075	$52.31	$-118.37	-69.3%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	150	0.345	$51.73	$33.73	+187.4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	1,961	0.026	$50.99	$-85.90	-62.8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	2,591	0.019	$50.53	$-127.74	-71.7%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	591	0.085	$50.24	$14.78	+41.7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1,061	0.037	$39.78	$-43.96	-52.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	700	0.040	$27.65	$-32.75	-54.2%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	424	0.065	$27.54	$-21.05	-43.3%
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	800	0.033	$26.40	$-34.69	-56.8%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	224	0.115	$25.74	$-71.03	-73.4%
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	168	0.145	$24.29	$-32.46	-57.2%
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	126	0.190	$23.92	$-4.19	-14.9%