Trader
0x70defa6950cb86fa73e49f88375e0f2800e38cf2
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$25
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$8
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
80%
20W / 5L · 8 open
Win Return (30d)
85%
28W / 5L
Trades (30d)
33
across 11 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$5.06
avg win $27 · loss $28
Profit Factor
1.46
$81 won / $55 lost
Reward / Risk
0.97
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$34
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $677,834
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
200 |
0.740 |
$148.00 |
$2.00 |
+1.4% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
141 |
0.987 |
$138.63 |
$11.45 |
+9.0% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
50 |
0.940 |
$47.13 |
$0.50 |
+1.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.853 |
$42.62 |
$1.07 |
+2.6% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
40 |
0.860 |
$34.40 |
$0.12 |
+0.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.675 |
$33.75 |
$3.25 |
+10.7% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
50 |
0.635 |
$31.75 |
$1.25 |
+4.1% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 |
Over |
5 |
0.515 |
$2.58 |
$-2.42 |
-48.4% |