PnL (30d)

−$9

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-22.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

54%

115W / 97L · 39 open

Win Return (30d)

56%

141W / 110L

Trades (30d)

251

across 55 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$0.20

avg win $1 · loss $0

Profit Factor

0.46

$8 won / $16 lost

Reward / Risk

1.63

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$4

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	63.2% 1,038W/604L	254	$373
🏛 Politics	34.5% 10W/19L	23	$20
🎬 Culture	37.0% 10W/17L	18	$18
💵 Economy	83.3% 10W/2L	8	$6
₿ Crypto	83.3% 10W/2L	7	$5
🤖 Tech	100.0% 3W/0L	1	$1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.003	$2.50	$-0.50	-16.7%
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	150	0.006	$0.97	$0.07	+8.3%
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	1,609	0.001	$0.80	$-0.80	-50.0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	124	0.006	$0.74	$-0.50	-40.0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	158	0.004	$0.55	$-0.24	-30.0%
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	64	0.005	$0.35	$-0.10	-21.4%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	380	0.001	$0.19	$-0.19	-50.0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	375	0.001	$0.19	$-0.26	-58.3%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	225	0.001	$0.11	$-0.34	-75.0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	75	0.002	$0.11	$-0.04	-24.9%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	150	0.001	$0.07	$-0.23	-75.0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	6	0.011	$0.07	$0.03	+64.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	21	0.003	$0.06	$-0.15	-70.0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	100	0.001	$0.05	$-0.25	-83.3%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	33	0.002	$0.05	$-0.15	-75.0%
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	30	0.002	$0.05	$-0.14	-75.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?	Yes	15	0.003	$0.04	$-0.10	-70.0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	75	0.001	$0.04	$-0.11	-75.0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	75	0.001	$0.04	$-0.11	-75.0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	75	0.001	$0.04	$-0.11	-75.0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	75	0.001	$0.04	$-0.11	-75.0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	9	0.004	$0.04	$-0.01	-20.0%
Will Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Yes	20	0.002	$0.03	$-5.97	-99.5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	60	0.001	$0.03	$-0.33	-91.6%