| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
No |
106 |
0.545 |
$57.87 |
$-3.13 |
-5.1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
No |
88 |
0.315 |
$27.79 |
$-2.21 |
-7.4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 6? |
No |
20 |
0.996 |
$20.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 7? |
No |
20 |
0.981 |
$20.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 10? |
No |
20 |
0.984 |
$19.78 |
$-0.22 |
-1.1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? |
No |
10 |
0.985 |
$10.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 10? |
Yes |
10 |
0.957 |
$9.97 |
$-0.03 |
-0.3% |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? |
Yes |
11 |
0.895 |
$9.52 |
$-0.48 |
-4.8% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
21 |
0.365 |
$7.60 |
$-2.40 |
-24.0% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
197 |
0.036 |
$7.19 |
$-7.81 |
-52.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
Yes |
43 |
0.125 |
$5.40 |
$-1.60 |
-22.8% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 5? |
No |
5 |
0.999 |
$5.20 |
$0.20 |
+4.0% |
| Tim Walz in jail by December 31? |
Yes |
48 |
0.055 |
$2.63 |
$-0.84 |
-24.3% |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
107 |
0.015 |
$1.66 |
$-1.34 |
-44.6% |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
82 |
0.010 |
$0.82 |
$-0.18 |
-17.6% |
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
116 |
0.006 |
$0.70 |
$-0.30 |
-30.4% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
95 |
0.003 |
$0.29 |
$-1.71 |
-85.7% |