| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,239 |
0.981 |
$3,175.97 |
$165.20 |
+5.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
3,290 |
0.770 |
$2,533.66 |
$333.66 |
+15.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
1,937 |
0.999 |
$1,934.35 |
$84.35 |
+4.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
1,708 |
0.830 |
$1,417.96 |
$152.13 |
+12.0% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
1,352 |
0.945 |
$1,278.11 |
$76.99 |
+6.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,062 |
0.565 |
$1,164.87 |
$294.88 |
+33.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,046 |
0.845 |
$884.21 |
$83.48 |
+10.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
1,001 |
0.835 |
$835.47 |
$-54.12 |
-6.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
634 |
0.999 |
$633.11 |
$144.88 |
+29.7% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
867 |
0.680 |
$589.82 |
$-111.37 |
-15.9% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,087 |
0.277 |
$577.12 |
$-150.50 |
-20.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
883 |
0.625 |
$551.78 |
$-56.61 |
-9.3% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
468 |
0.830 |
$388.30 |
$47.49 |
+13.9% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
448 |
0.855 |
$382.88 |
$7.83 |
+2.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.110 |
$330.00 |
$-600.00 |
-64.5% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
390 |
0.785 |
$306.20 |
$3.98 |
+1.3% |