| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 |
No |
31,561 |
0.815 |
$25,718.79 |
$6,852.39 |
+36.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
13,973 |
0.835 |
$11,667.86 |
$-150.98 |
-1.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
8,827 |
0.875 |
$7,723.62 |
$144.25 |
+1.9% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
8,206 |
0.665 |
$5,456.99 |
$801.00 |
+17.2% |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? |
No |
5,317 |
0.865 |
$4,599.20 |
$1,139.11 |
+32.9% |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
No |
5,057 |
0.820 |
$4,144.58 |
$-33.50 |
-0.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,053 |
0.655 |
$3,964.70 |
$16.28 |
+0.4% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
3,314 |
0.955 |
$3,164.89 |
$557.87 |
+21.4% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
No |
2,536 |
0.705 |
$1,787.88 |
$157.63 |
+9.7% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
No |
932 |
0.875 |
$815.50 |
$69.90 |
+9.4% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
749 |
0.962 |
$720.16 |
$41.57 |
+6.1% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? |
No |
281 |
0.949 |
$266.53 |
$9.26 |
+3.6% |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.310 |
$93.00 |
$15.25 |
+19.6% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
464 |
0.160 |
$74.22 |
$14.52 |
+24.3% |
| Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? |
No |
73 |
0.875 |
$64.16 |
$-1.39 |
-2.1% |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? |
No |
431 |
0.105 |
$45.29 |
$-10.67 |
-19.1% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
Yes |
57 |
0.530 |
$30.21 |
$17.10 |
+130.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
Yes |
66 |
0.077 |
$5.08 |
$-2.84 |
-35.8% |
| UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) |
Joel Álvarez |
1,899 |
0.000 |
$0.00 |
$-710.64 |
-100.0% |