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Trader leaderboard/Thukydides

Thukydides

0x6640bd87f6e4b6e8d62457448bd1b3a4711a2202
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$630
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3,504
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+1.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
100%
37W / 0L · 203 open
Win Return (30d)
64%
154W / 86L
Trades (30d)
240
across 16 markets · ~15 per market
EV / position
+$314.81
avg win $315
Profit Factor
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $21,066 · all-time $5,791,897

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 50.5% 47W/46L 25 $188,606
🏛 Politics 100.0% 35W/0L 9 $20,214

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80,000 0.790 $63,240.00 $23,240.00 +58.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 80,000 0.209 $16,760.00 $-23,240.00 -58.1%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 13,019 0.987 $12,843.33 $738.57 +6.1%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 10,456 1.000 $10,450.55 $1,030.67 +10.9%
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 9,751 0.855 $8,336.74 $1,839.55 +28.3%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 7,017 0.845 $5,929.14 $111.89 +1.9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 8,500 0.675 $5,737.49 $1,062.50 +22.7%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 6,780 0.740 $5,016.87 $1,056.79 +26.7%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 4,185 0.847 $3,543.01 $202.80 +6.1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No 3,728 0.840 $3,131.73 $42.95 +1.4%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes 3,971 0.607 $2,408.67 $-450.19 -15.7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4,000 0.271 $1,081.99 $-445.97 -29.2%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? No 1,000 1.000 $999.50 $139.50 +16.2%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Yes 1,000 1.000 $999.49 $139.50 +16.2%
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 276 0.805 $222.42 $-6.91 -3.0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 100 0.635 $63.77 $11.55 +22.1%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 111 0.440 $48.71 $-7.75 -13.7%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 41 0.435 $17.76 $-3.06 -14.7%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 13,788 0.001 $6.89 $-3,188.10 -99.8%