| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
10,170 |
0.982 |
$9,981.93 |
$647.49 |
+6.9% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
10,000 |
0.790 |
$7,905.00 |
$2,905.00 |
+58.1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.209 |
$2,095.00 |
$-2,905.00 |
-58.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,168 |
0.885 |
$1,918.37 |
$231.01 |
+13.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,724 |
0.959 |
$1,652.45 |
$153.05 |
+10.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,408 |
0.900 |
$1,266.82 |
$277.47 |
+28.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,621 |
0.770 |
$1,248.07 |
$346.66 |
+38.5% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
1,297 |
0.945 |
$1,225.46 |
$58.35 |
+5.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,000 |
1.000 |
$999.50 |
$16.72 |
+1.7% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,107 |
0.852 |
$942.90 |
$99.65 |
+11.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,000 |
0.835 |
$835.00 |
$101.00 |
+13.8% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
800 |
0.976 |
$780.78 |
$68.80 |
+9.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
No |
906 |
0.705 |
$638.65 |
$-3.53 |
-0.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.974 |
$584.40 |
$4.70 |
+0.8% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
No |
717 |
0.725 |
$520.12 |
$-15.88 |
-3.0% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
650 |
0.705 |
$458.25 |
$78.75 |
+20.8% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? |
No |
1,042 |
0.435 |
$453.09 |
$29.82 |
+7.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.963 |
$385.00 |
$21.00 |
+5.8% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
397 |
0.955 |
$379.51 |
$15.80 |
+4.3% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
400 |
0.885 |
$354.00 |
$88.00 |
+33.1% |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.845 |
$337.98 |
$109.39 |
+47.9% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
316 |
0.820 |
$258.85 |
$15.94 |
+6.6% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? |
No |
454 |
0.375 |
$170.32 |
$-20.94 |
-10.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
183 |
0.930 |
$170.21 |
$29.76 |
+21.2% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
126 |
0.955 |
$120.41 |
$48.54 |
+67.5% |