PnL (30d)

−$493

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$41

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

57%

228W / 169L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

58%

235W / 170L

Trades (30d)

405

across 54 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

−$10.49

avg win $45 · loss $99

Profit Factor

0.72

$1,294 won / $1,787 lost

Reward / Risk

0.45

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$753

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	59.6% 604W/409L	142	$77,305
🏛 Politics	52.3% 80W/73L	20	$12,494
🎬 Culture	52.3% 79W/72L	17	$12,377
💵 Economy	50.0% 1W/1L	3	$118

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	500	0.970	$484.75	$53.75	+12.5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	200	0.930	$186.00	$2.00	+1.1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	100	0.825	$82.50	$0.50	+0.6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	100	0.545	$54.50	$11.50	+26.7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	Yes	100	0.460	$46.00	$4.00	+9.5%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Yes	63	0.245	$15.35	$-10.65	-41.0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	218	0.030	$6.65	$0.91	+15.8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	5	0.730	$3.75	$0.21	+5.8%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	25	0.024	$0.59	$-2.41	-80.4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	100	0.002	$0.15	$-0.75	-83.3%