| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
74 |
0.855 |
$63.32 |
$-1.47 |
-2.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
42 |
0.835 |
$34.77 |
$2.28 |
+7.0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
34 |
0.991 |
$33.94 |
$-0.02 |
-0.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
33 |
0.935 |
$30.62 |
$0.25 |
+0.8% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
24 |
0.935 |
$22.00 |
$-0.00 |
-0.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
39 |
0.515 |
$20.08 |
$0.97 |
+5.1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.961 |
$12.61 |
$-0.02 |
-0.2% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
19 |
0.645 |
$11.95 |
$2.25 |
+23.1% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.970 |
$9.80 |
$0.39 |
+4.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
65 |
0.135 |
$8.80 |
$-0.98 |
-10.0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
10 |
0.786 |
$8.13 |
$1.58 |
+24.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.375 |
$8.02 |
$0.31 |
+4.0% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
11 |
0.635 |
$7.17 |
$0.31 |
+4.6% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.962 |
$6.98 |
$-0.01 |
-0.2% |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.945 |
$5.02 |
$-0.03 |
-0.5% |
| Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.942 |
$4.88 |
$-0.07 |
-1.5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
Yes |
79 |
0.055 |
$4.36 |
$-0.40 |
-8.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4 |
0.995 |
$4.32 |
$0.31 |
+7.7% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
No |
4 |
0.989 |
$3.99 |
$0.04 |
+1.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
10 |
0.405 |
$3.89 |
$-0.03 |
-0.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
No |
7 |
0.545 |
$3.80 |
$-0.17 |
-4.3% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? |
No |
4 |
0.875 |
$3.54 |
$-0.18 |
-4.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
4 |
0.835 |
$3.53 |
$-0.15 |
-4.0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
4 |
0.835 |
$3.39 |
$0.47 |
+16.0% |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? |
Yes |
17 |
0.204 |
$3.37 |
$-1.63 |
-32.5% |