PnL (30d)

−$13

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

29%

15W / 37L · 26 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

15W / 45L · 18 open

Trades (30d)

78

across 39 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.43

avg win $1 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.34

$7 won / $19 lost

Reward / Risk

1.13

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$13

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	34.0% 72W/140L	180	$1,067
🌤 Weather	34.1% 14W/27L	31	$171
💵 Economy	—	2	$1
⚽ Sports	—	2	$1
🏛 Politics	—	2	$4
🤖 Tech	—	1	$0
🔬 Science	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	15	0.999	$14.98	$8.13	+118.8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	No	10	1.000	$9.99	$4.89	+96.0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 5?	No	5	0.997	$4.99	$2.48	+99.4%
Will Brad Kohler win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	750	0.001	$0.38	$-1.88	-83.3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?	No	10	0.013	$0.13	$-4.57	-97.2%
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	110	0.001	$0.06	$-0.94	-94.4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 5?	Yes	10	0.003	$0.03	$-5.02	-99.4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	10	0.001	$0.01	$-3.90	-99.9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?	No	5	0.001	$0.00	$-2.45	-99.9%