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Trader leaderboard/mars-12

mars-12

0x63b458729c147394272006ca15755a0a635cee12
PnL (30d)
−$215
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$2
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-17.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
36%
39W / 68L · 139 open
Win Return (30d)
45%
109W / 131L · 6 open
Trades (30d)
246
across 107 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$4.40
avg win $9 · loss $11
Profit Factor
0.41
$147 won / $363 lost
Reward / Risk
0.76
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $207 · all-time $25,612

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 36.4% 39W/68L 107 $2,281
🏛 Politics 14 $110
💵 Economy 6 $26
⚽ Sports 4 $18
₿ Crypto 2 $8
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $7

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

25 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Holland vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card) Jacobe Smith 21 0.500 $10.71 $-0.86 -7.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 6 0.615 $3.69 $0.81 +28.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 6 0.515 $2.97 $0.09 +3.0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 6 0.460 $2.94 $0.06 +2.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 7 0.445 $2.91 $0.03 +1.1%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main Card) Bryce Mitchell 6 0.500 $2.88 $0.00 +0.0%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jaume Munar 6 0.500 $2.88 $0.00 +0.0%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 6 0.485 $2.86 $-0.03 -1.0%
Kitzbuehel: Martina Colmegna vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 6 0.500 $2.83 $-0.06 -2.0%
Livesport Prague Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Korneeva Alina Korneeva 6 0.500 $2.83 $-0.06 -2.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 8 0.355 $2.80 $-0.04 -1.4%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? No 7 0.390 $2.79 $-0.07 -2.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 9 0.305 $2.78 $-0.05 -1.6%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 7 0.395 $2.76 $-0.10 -3.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? No 6 0.440 $2.75 $-0.12 -4.3%
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes 8 0.355 $2.73 $-0.12 -4.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 6 0.455 $2.68 $-0.21 -7.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No 7 0.375 $2.62 $-0.17 -6.2%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes 6 0.405 $2.53 $-0.34 -12.0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes 9 0.275 $2.43 $-0.40 -14.1%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? Yes 7 0.320 $2.34 $-0.51 -17.9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes 7 0.277 $2.06 $-0.79 -27.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 9 0.215 $1.84 $-0.73 -28.3%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? No 9 0.135 $1.23 $-1.59 -56.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? No 1 0.055 $0.07 $-0.49 -86.9%