| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
246 |
0.845 |
$207.78 |
$27.03 |
+15.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
288 |
0.675 |
$194.45 |
$29.08 |
+17.6% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
68 |
0.825 |
$56.25 |
$11.25 |
+25.0% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.969 |
$26.32 |
$1.57 |
+6.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
23 |
0.830 |
$19.09 |
$14.26 |
+295.2% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
517 |
0.025 |
$13.14 |
$-1.86 |
-12.4% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? |
Yes |
21 |
0.606 |
$12.50 |
$4.68 |
+59.9% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
42 |
0.264 |
$11.03 |
$1.03 |
+10.3% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
136 |
0.080 |
$10.91 |
$-4.09 |
-27.3% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.605 |
$6.66 |
$2.48 |
+59.2% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
Yes |
58 |
0.110 |
$6.35 |
$0.22 |
+3.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.964 |
$6.18 |
$1.18 |
+23.5% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
248 |
0.025 |
$6.07 |
$0.12 |
+2.1% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? |
Yes |
227 |
0.026 |
$5.91 |
$0.91 |
+18.2% |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? |
Yes |
6 |
0.820 |
$5.26 |
$0.26 |
+5.1% |
| Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.925 |
$5.14 |
$0.14 |
+2.8% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? |
No |
5 |
0.945 |
$5.08 |
$0.08 |
+1.6% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
14 |
0.375 |
$5.07 |
$0.07 |
+1.4% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.988 |
$5.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.2% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
Yes |
18 |
0.275 |
$4.91 |
$-0.09 |
-1.8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
41 |
0.117 |
$4.74 |
$-0.26 |
-5.3% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
Yes |
22 |
0.210 |
$4.57 |
$-0.43 |
-8.7% |
| Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? |
Yes |
4 |
0.985 |
$4.40 |
$0.20 |
+4.8% |
| Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? |
No |
5 |
0.855 |
$4.32 |
$-0.68 |
-13.6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
56 |
0.075 |
$4.17 |
$-0.83 |
-16.7% |