| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
22,978 |
0.973 |
$22,357.17 |
$-73.90 |
-0.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7,288 |
1.000 |
$7,284.68 |
$521.32 |
+7.7% |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? |
No |
6,735 |
0.940 |
$6,330.68 |
$79.60 |
+1.3% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,000 |
0.750 |
$4,499.99 |
$240.00 |
+5.6% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
3,190 |
0.875 |
$2,790.99 |
$-127.12 |
-4.4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
2,000 |
0.945 |
$1,890.01 |
$133.05 |
+7.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
2,135 |
0.830 |
$1,772.17 |
$256.22 |
+16.9% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? |
No |
1,790 |
0.974 |
$1,743.79 |
$49.14 |
+2.9% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
1,500 |
0.977 |
$1,465.50 |
$44.50 |
+3.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,633 |
0.465 |
$759.47 |
$-301.18 |
-28.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.615 |
$615.00 |
$-205.00 |
-25.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.205 |
$205.00 |
$-55.00 |
-21.2% |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.970 |
$19.39 |
$0.17 |
+0.9% |