| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? |
No |
1,255 |
0.900 |
$1,129.54 |
$49.10 |
+4.5% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,205 |
0.930 |
$1,120.90 |
$95.88 |
+9.4% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,951 |
0.560 |
$1,092.29 |
$-17.62 |
-1.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
556 |
0.981 |
$545.60 |
$29.75 |
+5.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
424 |
0.935 |
$396.88 |
$21.88 |
+5.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
445 |
0.835 |
$371.23 |
$18.06 |
+5.1% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
415 |
0.815 |
$338.18 |
$4.83 |
+1.4% |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? |
Yes |
343 |
0.975 |
$334.84 |
$5.67 |
+1.7% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? |
No |
320 |
0.915 |
$292.79 |
$31.20 |
+11.9% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.945 |
$283.50 |
$14.17 |
+5.3% |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? |
No |
300 |
0.920 |
$276.00 |
$6.00 |
+2.2% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
318 |
0.855 |
$271.89 |
$23.85 |
+9.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.775 |
$232.50 |
$2.50 |
+1.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
270 |
0.855 |
$230.85 |
$55.02 |
+31.3% |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? |
Yes |
304 |
0.725 |
$220.60 |
$55.28 |
+33.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
No |
235 |
0.885 |
$207.97 |
$5.09 |
+2.5% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? |
No |
212 |
0.919 |
$194.93 |
$9.65 |
+5.2% |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? |
No |
150 |
0.925 |
$138.75 |
$3.75 |
+2.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? |
No |
150 |
0.905 |
$135.75 |
$6.25 |
+4.8% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
120 |
0.976 |
$117.05 |
$2.90 |
+2.5% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? |
No |
130 |
0.880 |
$114.40 |
$3.10 |
+2.8% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
583 |
0.145 |
$84.50 |
$-94.37 |
-52.8% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
163 |
0.415 |
$67.64 |
$5.70 |
+9.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.650 |
$65.00 |
$1.00 |
+1.6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
260 |
0.225 |
$58.42 |
$-23.79 |
-28.9% |