PnL (30d)

−$281

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$411

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

24%

5W / 16L · 98 open

Win Return (30d)

61%

72W / 47L

Trades (30d)

119

across 12 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

−$93.76

avg win $5 · loss $143

Profit Factor

0.02

$5 won / $286 lost

Reward / Risk

0.03

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	72.1% 44W/17L	28	$25,691
🏛 Politics	—	7	$2,923

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	2,800	0.930	$2,604.00	$156.81	+6.4%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	2,040	0.820	$1,672.82	$122.16	+7.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	1,500	0.966	$1,449.00	$146.20	+11.2%
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	1,500	0.925	$1,387.50	$17.50	+1.3%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	800	0.945	$756.00	$35.12	+4.9%
Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026?	No	650	0.978	$635.38	$-1.57	-0.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	380	0.850	$322.91	$12.63	+4.1%
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	110	0.981	$107.86	$1.53	+1.4%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	No	100	0.983	$98.30	$0.80	+0.8%
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?	Yes	102	0.950	$96.49	$7.34	+8.2%