| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
26,359 |
0.615 |
$16,211.06 |
$685.93 |
+4.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
15,415 |
0.855 |
$13,179.61 |
$5,409.62 |
+69.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
14,666 |
0.455 |
$6,673.02 |
$-2,268.00 |
-25.4% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
5,873 |
0.356 |
$2,093.55 |
$-139.38 |
-6.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,258 |
0.920 |
$2,077.36 |
$296.13 |
+16.6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
18,175 |
0.095 |
$1,726.62 |
$-3,550.05 |
-67.3% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? |
No |
2,383 |
0.635 |
$1,513.30 |
$44.43 |
+3.0% |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
3,800 |
0.370 |
$1,406.18 |
$5.53 |
+0.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
1,200 |
0.740 |
$887.39 |
$-13.20 |
-1.5% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
600 |
0.865 |
$519.00 |
$-3.00 |
-0.6% |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
575 |
0.885 |
$508.87 |
$14.37 |
+2.9% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? |
Yes |
1,718 |
0.215 |
$369.44 |
$-52.26 |
-12.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.49 |
$6.50 |
+2.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
737 |
0.455 |
$334.99 |
$-25.88 |
-7.2% |
| Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31? |
Yes |
357 |
0.930 |
$331.85 |
$12.30 |
+3.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
650 |
0.480 |
$312.00 |
$-104.00 |
-25.0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
1,152 |
0.265 |
$305.16 |
$-297.74 |
-49.4% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
2,198 |
0.135 |
$296.75 |
$-186.84 |
-38.6% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
414 |
0.705 |
$291.54 |
$5.18 |
+1.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
300 |
0.969 |
$290.70 |
$1.20 |
+0.4% |
| Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? |
No |
291 |
1.000 |
$290.51 |
$29.92 |
+11.5% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,279 |
0.125 |
$284.84 |
$-158.73 |
-35.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
502 |
0.560 |
$281.02 |
$40.15 |
+16.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
300 |
0.835 |
$250.50 |
$40.50 |
+19.3% |
| Government shutdown by October 1? |
No |
278 |
0.795 |
$220.61 |
$-1.69 |
-0.8% |