| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
494 |
0.445 |
$219.80 |
$-0.20 |
-0.1% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
625 |
0.235 |
$146.87 |
$-3.12 |
-2.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
271 |
0.455 |
$123.20 |
$3.19 |
+2.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
231 |
0.450 |
$103.81 |
$3.81 |
+3.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.515 |
$103.16 |
$3.15 |
+3.2% |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
407 |
0.245 |
$99.78 |
$-0.22 |
-0.2% |
| Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? |
Yes |
643 |
0.144 |
$92.57 |
$40.57 |
+78.0% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
251 |
0.215 |
$53.89 |
$3.89 |
+7.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
501 |
0.085 |
$42.59 |
$-7.41 |
-14.8% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? |
No |
252 |
0.165 |
$41.54 |
$-8.46 |
-16.9% |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
388 |
0.095 |
$36.90 |
$-13.10 |
-26.2% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? |
Yes |
100 |
0.365 |
$36.50 |
$4.50 |
+14.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
177 |
0.185 |
$32.65 |
$2.65 |
+8.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? |
Yes |
42 |
0.630 |
$26.25 |
$6.25 |
+31.2% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? |
No |
333 |
0.079 |
$26.17 |
$1.17 |
+4.7% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
43 |
0.545 |
$23.66 |
$3.66 |
+18.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
45 |
0.440 |
$20.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
57 |
0.330 |
$18.86 |
$-1.14 |
-5.7% |
| Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? |
Yes |
65 |
0.290 |
$18.71 |
$-1.29 |
-6.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
20 |
0.870 |
$17.06 |
$7.06 |
+70.6% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat? |
Yes |
41 |
0.405 |
$16.42 |
$1.42 |
+9.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? |
Yes |
60 |
0.245 |
$14.70 |
$-0.30 |
-2.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? |
Yes |
38 |
0.365 |
$13.69 |
$-1.31 |
-8.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
14 |
0.845 |
$11.90 |
$1.90 |
+19.0% |
| Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? |
Yes |
131 |
0.090 |
$11.77 |
$1.77 |
+17.7% |