| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
96,329 |
0.835 |
$80,434.78 |
$9,135.85 |
+12.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
67,736 |
0.982 |
$66,483.17 |
$2,769.80 |
+4.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
No |
18,853 |
0.885 |
$16,684.91 |
$473.40 |
+2.9% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
17,376 |
0.855 |
$14,856.72 |
$2,862.72 |
+23.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
11,588 |
0.976 |
$11,304.53 |
$620.78 |
+5.8% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
11,059 |
0.945 |
$10,451.14 |
$743.63 |
+7.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
8,978 |
0.855 |
$7,676.35 |
$1,545.42 |
+25.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
9,123 |
0.775 |
$7,070.32 |
$131.39 |
+1.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
6,983 |
0.964 |
$6,728.12 |
$602.35 |
+9.8% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
5,237 |
0.955 |
$5,001.34 |
$47.32 |
+1.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
No |
3,900 |
0.963 |
$3,753.75 |
$126.75 |
+3.5% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
No |
4,159 |
0.835 |
$3,472.76 |
$370.88 |
+12.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,903 |
0.725 |
$2,829.67 |
$102.24 |
+3.7% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,803 |
0.935 |
$2,621.20 |
$143.32 |
+5.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
4,817 |
0.542 |
$2,610.76 |
$-2,031.88 |
-43.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,589 |
1.000 |
$2,587.58 |
$571.69 |
+28.4% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
3,700 |
0.685 |
$2,534.50 |
$129.50 |
+5.4% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? |
Yes |
2,924 |
0.745 |
$2,178.23 |
$132.56 |
+6.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,242 |
0.953 |
$2,135.50 |
$76.33 |
+3.7% |
| Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
2,130 |
0.968 |
$2,061.84 |
$-18.74 |
-0.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
2,184 |
0.900 |
$1,965.60 |
$-2.55 |
-0.1% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
2,602 |
0.745 |
$1,936.83 |
$-3.23 |
-0.2% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
1,962 |
0.980 |
$1,922.75 |
$10.58 |
+0.6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
1,876 |
1.000 |
$1,875.05 |
$10.10 |
+0.5% |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting? |
Yes |
1,809 |
0.997 |
$1,802.67 |
$36.17 |
+2.0% |