stonewu
0x5c981963b983d3056e81c51124117916d0c1fc8a
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$5
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$4
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
27%
3W / 8L · 13 open
Win Return (30d)
62%
15W / 9L
Trades (30d)
24
across 7 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.14
avg win $12 · loss $5
Profit Factor
0.72
$12 won / $16 lost
Reward / Risk
2.15
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$8
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $368 · all-time $42,239
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
116 |
0.835 |
$97.12 |
$8.88 |
+10.1% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
29 |
0.625 |
$18.17 |
$0.73 |
+4.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
68 |
0.250 |
$16.91 |
$-3.38 |
-16.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
88 |
0.165 |
$14.44 |
$2.19 |
+17.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
9 |
0.590 |
$5.46 |
$0.46 |
+9.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
11 |
0.495 |
$5.23 |
$0.23 |
+4.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.275 |
$2.94 |
$0.37 |
+14.6% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
Yes |
130 |
0.018 |
$2.28 |
$-7.28 |
-76.2% |