| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
2,600 |
0.945 |
$2,457.01 |
$91.00 |
+3.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
2,050 |
0.972 |
$1,992.60 |
$20.30 |
+1.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
2,400 |
0.825 |
$1,980.01 |
$-118.00 |
-5.6% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
1,380 |
0.984 |
$1,357.92 |
$21.68 |
+1.6% |
| Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,190 |
0.927 |
$1,103.71 |
$-22.46 |
-2.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.50 |
$26.50 |
+2.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.976 |
$975.50 |
$21.50 |
+2.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.962 |
$962.00 |
$22.00 |
+2.3% |
| Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
No |
980 |
0.795 |
$779.10 |
$-34.30 |
-4.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
800 |
0.945 |
$756.01 |
$36.00 |
+5.0% |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
No |
839 |
0.845 |
$708.82 |
$-0.53 |
-0.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
1,000 |
0.695 |
$694.90 |
$-75.10 |
-9.8% |
| Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
No |
888 |
0.710 |
$630.46 |
$-44.40 |
-6.6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.935 |
$467.50 |
$-2.50 |
-0.5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.875 |
$437.50 |
$2.50 |
+0.6% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
380 |
0.987 |
$374.87 |
$9.69 |
+2.7% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.50 |
$47.50 |
+16.4% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.990 |
$296.85 |
$1.11 |
+0.4% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
292 |
0.985 |
$287.47 |
$7.45 |
+2.7% |
| Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? |
No |
273 |
0.984 |
$268.50 |
$-0.27 |
-0.1% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.997 |
$249.12 |
$-0.62 |
-0.3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
250 |
0.966 |
$241.38 |
$1.38 |
+0.6% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
245 |
0.962 |
$235.69 |
$14.45 |
+6.5% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
589 |
0.380 |
$223.99 |
$-27.26 |
-10.9% |
| Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? |
No |
221 |
0.998 |
$220.56 |
$-0.18 |
-0.1% |