| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 |
No |
1,900 |
0.815 |
$1,548.31 |
$395.31 |
+34.3% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.685 |
$1,095.98 |
$48.50 |
+4.6% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
No |
9,870 |
0.105 |
$1,036.31 |
$-155.66 |
-13.1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,866 |
0.515 |
$961.03 |
$-47.51 |
-4.7% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
1,020 |
0.865 |
$882.28 |
$138.00 |
+18.5% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
761 |
0.910 |
$692.46 |
$202.41 |
+41.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.345 |
$689.79 |
$89.80 |
+15.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
750 |
0.835 |
$626.25 |
$18.75 |
+3.1% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
730 |
0.785 |
$573.06 |
$273.33 |
+91.2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
700 |
0.745 |
$521.50 |
$17.50 |
+3.5% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.990 |
$494.75 |
$69.75 |
+16.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.853 |
$426.26 |
$29.25 |
+7.4% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
506 |
0.830 |
$419.78 |
$45.88 |
+12.3% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
600 |
0.693 |
$415.74 |
$-12.36 |
-2.9% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
501 |
0.815 |
$408.67 |
$52.81 |
+14.8% |
| US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
540 |
0.725 |
$391.50 |
$93.93 |
+31.6% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
475 |
0.750 |
$356.03 |
$173.45 |
+95.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
500 |
0.695 |
$347.45 |
$-77.55 |
-18.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.845 |
$338.00 |
$-18.00 |
-5.1% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
700 |
0.465 |
$325.50 |
$18.50 |
+6.0% |
| António Guterres out by December 31? |
No |
388 |
0.770 |
$298.64 |
$19.39 |
+6.9% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
304 |
0.835 |
$254.13 |
$16.78 |
+7.1% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
200 |
0.952 |
$190.40 |
$48.40 |
+34.1% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.930 |
$186.09 |
$42.10 |
+29.2% |
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.845 |
$168.99 |
$27.00 |
+19.0% |