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Trader leaderboard/Cescoli

Cescoli

0x569bec2c8411959067fb9bc2defeeeb97105c66e
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$160
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+53.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
24%
10W / 31L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
24%
10W / 32L
Trades (30d)
42
across 15 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$11.41
avg win $87 · loss $19
Profit Factor
1.84
$349 won / $189 lost
Reward / Risk
4.61
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$70
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $6,093 · all-time $363,579

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 15.0% 26W/147L 126 $4,170
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/37L 27 $372
🎬 Culture 14.3% 2W/12L 4 $226
🏛 Politics 14.3% 2W/12L 3 $167

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

62 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? Yes 445 0.385 $171.32 $-39.52 -18.7%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1,611 0.095 $153.06 $-6.94 -4.3%
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 200 0.675 $134.95 $32.99 +32.4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2,500 0.051 $126.25 $38.75 +44.3%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1,820 0.069 $124.66 $24.57 +24.5%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1,411 0.085 $119.91 $35.27 +41.7%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2,000 0.058 $115.00 $27.00 +30.7%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2,954 0.033 $96.00 $7.38 +8.3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 529 0.177 $93.82 $-95.93 -50.6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 917 0.095 $87.08 $-102.91 -54.2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2,446 0.035 $84.39 $-13.45 -13.8%
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 110 0.755 $83.43 $39.43 +89.6%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes 200 0.345 $68.98 $-31.02 -31.0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1,403 0.045 $63.14 $-7.02 -10.0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1,453 0.036 $53.03 $9.44 +21.7%
Will Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 153 0.345 $52.88 $-6.12 -10.4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1,500 0.034 $51.00 $-48.00 -48.5%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 700 0.071 $49.98 $-16.52 -24.8%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 500 0.095 $47.50 $-2.50 -5.0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3,500 0.013 $47.25 $-5.25 -10.0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? Yes 135 0.335 $45.27 $-4.73 -9.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 388 0.117 $45.15 $-19.81 -30.5%
Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? Yes 1,248 0.035 $44.19 $0.50 +1.1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1,000 0.041 $40.50 $-8.50 -17.3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1,328 0.029 $39.16 $-0.66 -1.7%