| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? |
No |
1,942 |
0.710 |
$1,378.93 |
$552.18 |
+66.8% |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? |
No |
2,046 |
0.600 |
$1,227.86 |
$33.96 |
+2.8% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,628 |
0.700 |
$1,139.48 |
$153.29 |
+15.5% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,181 |
0.850 |
$1,004.05 |
$285.49 |
+39.7% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,048 |
0.885 |
$927.48 |
$35.64 |
+4.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,069 |
0.595 |
$636.08 |
$-40.89 |
-6.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
908 |
0.685 |
$621.69 |
$52.72 |
+9.3% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,415 |
0.230 |
$555.50 |
$183.66 |
+49.4% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
680 |
0.750 |
$510.00 |
$137.35 |
+36.9% |
| Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
550 |
0.875 |
$481.56 |
$123.83 |
+34.6% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
673 |
0.703 |
$473.09 |
$167.54 |
+54.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
499 |
0.923 |
$460.51 |
$33.80 |
+7.9% |
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Yes |
1,366 |
0.325 |
$444.05 |
$139.39 |
+45.8% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Yes |
782 |
0.530 |
$414.67 |
$126.41 |
+43.9% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? |
No |
478 |
0.842 |
$402.48 |
$9.90 |
+2.5% |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
730 |
0.515 |
$375.94 |
$39.56 |
+11.8% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
907 |
0.410 |
$371.85 |
$-6.11 |
-1.6% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Yes |
794 |
0.440 |
$349.29 |
$36.48 |
+11.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
548 |
0.630 |
$345.22 |
$12.22 |
+3.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
586 |
0.570 |
$334.17 |
$81.46 |
+32.2% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? |
No |
365 |
0.885 |
$323.31 |
$38.36 |
+13.5% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
750 |
0.430 |
$322.33 |
$144.52 |
+81.3% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
348 |
0.925 |
$321.81 |
$79.82 |
+33.0% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
530 |
0.585 |
$310.17 |
$129.68 |
+71.8% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? |
No |
942 |
0.320 |
$301.35 |
$40.50 |
+15.5% |