| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
80 |
0.845 |
$67.60 |
$27.60 |
+69.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
61 |
0.853 |
$52.00 |
$1.19 |
+2.3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.905 |
$45.25 |
$6.35 |
+16.3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
50 |
0.895 |
$44.75 |
$8.75 |
+24.3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
60 |
0.745 |
$44.70 |
$2.70 |
+6.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
52 |
0.855 |
$44.46 |
$3.90 |
+9.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.830 |
$41.50 |
$1.50 |
+3.8% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.885 |
$35.40 |
$11.80 |
+50.0% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
36 |
0.915 |
$32.94 |
$2.34 |
+7.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
47 |
0.655 |
$30.79 |
$4.93 |
+19.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
57 |
0.380 |
$21.66 |
$-5.88 |
-21.4% |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.535 |
$21.40 |
$-0.60 |
-2.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.775 |
$20.93 |
$0.58 |
+2.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
26 |
0.695 |
$18.07 |
$-2.21 |
-10.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.495 |
$14.85 |
$-2.83 |
-16.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
13 |
0.865 |
$11.24 |
$0.45 |
+4.2% |