| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
140 |
0.835 |
$116.94 |
$4.91 |
+4.4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
89 |
0.935 |
$83.45 |
$0.45 |
+0.5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
35 |
0.945 |
$32.81 |
$-0.17 |
-0.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
39 |
0.835 |
$32.19 |
$-0.25 |
-0.8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
29 |
0.745 |
$21.31 |
$-0.10 |
-0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
26 |
0.785 |
$20.34 |
$2.21 |
+12.2% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.956 |
$19.91 |
$-0.02 |
-0.1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
23 |
0.675 |
$15.80 |
$0.85 |
+5.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
17 |
0.895 |
$15.49 |
$2.51 |
+19.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
15 |
0.885 |
$13.67 |
$1.40 |
+11.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.852 |
$12.36 |
$0.12 |
+1.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
14 |
0.785 |
$10.83 |
$2.61 |
+31.8% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.875 |
$9.93 |
$1.51 |
+17.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
24 |
0.380 |
$9.26 |
$-0.42 |
-4.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.905 |
$8.60 |
$-0.05 |
-0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
9 |
0.900 |
$8.10 |
$0.72 |
+9.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
6 |
0.999 |
$6.42 |
$0.15 |
+2.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
6 |
1.000 |
$6.22 |
$0.07 |
+1.1% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
8 |
0.675 |
$5.42 |
$-0.04 |
-0.7% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
6 |
0.895 |
$5.00 |
$0.05 |
+1.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
7 |
0.455 |
$3.13 |
$0.03 |
+1.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
3 |
0.905 |
$2.26 |
$-0.01 |
-0.5% |