| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
132 |
0.685 |
$90.41 |
$6.74 |
+8.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.835 |
$83.50 |
$-4.50 |
-5.1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
No |
200 |
0.385 |
$77.00 |
$-23.00 |
-23.0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.189 |
$75.40 |
$-24.60 |
-24.6% |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? |
Yes |
4,504 |
0.004 |
$15.76 |
$11.26 |
+250.0% |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? |
Yes |
2,330 |
0.005 |
$12.81 |
$1.16 |
+10.0% |
| Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
3,996 |
0.002 |
$7.99 |
$4.00 |
+100.0% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.001 |
$5.00 |
$-5.00 |
-50.0% |
| Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
2,982 |
0.002 |
$4.47 |
$1.46 |
+48.2% |
| Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
2,678 |
0.002 |
$4.02 |
$1.27 |
+46.1% |
| Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
2,465 |
0.002 |
$3.70 |
$1.23 |
+50.0% |
| Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
2,361 |
0.002 |
$3.54 |
$1.18 |
+50.0% |
| Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
1,772 |
0.002 |
$2.66 |
$0.81 |
+44.1% |
| Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.003 |
$2.50 |
$0.50 |
+25.0% |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.003 |
$2.50 |
$0.50 |
+25.0% |
| Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
1,540 |
0.002 |
$2.31 |
$0.77 |
+50.0% |
| Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
519 |
0.004 |
$1.82 |
$0.80 |
+78.4% |
| Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.002 |
$1.50 |
$-0.50 |
-25.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.215 |
$1.41 |
$-1.15 |
-44.9% |
| Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Yes |
110 |
0.004 |
$0.44 |
$0.33 |
+299.8% |
| Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
13 |
0.016 |
$0.20 |
$0.19 |
+1499.1% |
| Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
45 |
0.004 |
$0.16 |
$0.07 |
+75.0% |
| Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
10 |
0.001 |
$0.01 |
$-0.10 |
-95.0% |
| Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
10 |
0.001 |
$0.01 |
$-0.10 |
-95.0% |
| Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
4 |
0.001 |
$0.00 |
$-0.03 |
-95.1% |