| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
38 |
0.930 |
$35.36 |
$0.73 |
+2.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
35 |
0.855 |
$29.93 |
$1.13 |
+3.9% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
51 |
0.580 |
$29.58 |
$2.85 |
+10.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
28 |
0.963 |
$26.94 |
$3.59 |
+15.4% |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
25 |
0.961 |
$24.02 |
$0.24 |
+1.0% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.022 |
$22.50 |
$-20.92 |
-48.2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
24 |
0.875 |
$21.00 |
$0.22 |
+1.1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
20 |
0.980 |
$19.60 |
$0.66 |
+3.5% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
20 |
0.956 |
$19.11 |
$0.27 |
+1.4% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
19 |
0.954 |
$18.13 |
$0.09 |
+0.5% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
16 |
0.987 |
$15.78 |
$0.61 |
+4.0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
16 |
0.978 |
$15.65 |
$0.06 |
+0.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
107 |
0.145 |
$15.55 |
$-3.25 |
-17.3% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
18 |
0.856 |
$15.40 |
$-0.92 |
-5.7% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
16 |
0.925 |
$14.81 |
$0.64 |
+4.5% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
14 |
0.987 |
$13.81 |
$0.61 |
+4.6% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? |
No |
13 |
0.929 |
$12.08 |
$-0.34 |
-2.7% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
12 |
0.987 |
$11.84 |
$0.16 |
+1.4% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
12 |
0.983 |
$11.79 |
$-0.09 |
-0.8% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.905 |
$11.77 |
$5.26 |
+81.0% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.885 |
$11.51 |
$2.58 |
+29.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
26 |
0.385 |
$10.01 |
$0.31 |
+3.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
10 |
1.000 |
$9.99 |
$1.38 |
+16.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
10 |
0.969 |
$9.69 |
$1.27 |
+15.1% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
No |
85 |
0.114 |
$9.65 |
$-7.78 |
-44.6% |