| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.905 |
$13.57 |
$5.47 |
+67.6% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
13 |
0.945 |
$12.12 |
$2.66 |
+28.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
11 |
0.945 |
$10.55 |
$0.67 |
+6.8% |
| Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
11 |
0.935 |
$10.49 |
$0.62 |
+6.2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.970 |
$9.93 |
$0.10 |
+1.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.900 |
$9.77 |
$4.80 |
+96.6% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.956 |
$9.56 |
$1.16 |
+13.8% |
| StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
15 |
0.640 |
$9.41 |
$4.41 |
+88.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
8 |
0.998 |
$8.17 |
$3.26 |
+66.2% |
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
14 |
0.585 |
$8.12 |
$3.12 |
+62.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
8 |
0.999 |
$7.92 |
$3.01 |
+61.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
9 |
0.890 |
$7.67 |
$2.76 |
+56.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7 |
1.000 |
$7.04 |
$2.11 |
+42.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.800 |
$7.02 |
$2.10 |
+42.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
6 |
0.955 |
$6.04 |
$1.11 |
+22.4% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
7 |
0.835 |
$5.64 |
$0.71 |
+14.4% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
22 |
0.255 |
$5.54 |
$0.76 |
+15.9% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
6 |
0.885 |
$5.46 |
$0.52 |
+10.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
12 |
0.465 |
$5.40 |
$0.52 |
+10.7% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
7 |
0.815 |
$5.39 |
$0.43 |
+8.7% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
6 |
0.895 |
$5.33 |
$0.33 |
+6.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.550 |
$5.29 |
$0.29 |
+5.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.925 |
$5.26 |
$0.31 |
+6.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
7 |
0.705 |
$5.26 |
$0.34 |
+6.8% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
5 |
0.983 |
$5.23 |
$0.34 |
+6.8% |