| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
9,323 |
0.981 |
$9,141.20 |
$361.61 |
+4.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
6,548 |
0.969 |
$6,341.73 |
$59.46 |
+0.9% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
2,482 |
0.987 |
$2,448.91 |
$82.30 |
+3.5% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
3,000 |
0.540 |
$1,621.44 |
$-87.47 |
-5.1% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.460 |
$1,378.66 |
$92.53 |
+7.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
1,392 |
0.835 |
$1,162.32 |
$-32.72 |
-2.7% |
| Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31? |
No |
726 |
0.964 |
$699.89 |
$10.16 |
+1.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
837 |
0.760 |
$636.16 |
$6.31 |
+1.0% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
647 |
0.857 |
$554.44 |
$-0.80 |
-0.1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
715 |
0.675 |
$482.62 |
$82.22 |
+20.5% |
| Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August? |
No |
328 |
0.944 |
$309.20 |
$24.06 |
+8.4% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher? |
Yes |
135 |
0.966 |
$130.27 |
$7.01 |
+5.7% |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? |
Yes |
55 |
0.087 |
$4.78 |
$-0.22 |
-4.4% |