| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
418 |
0.261 |
$108.88 |
$8.88 |
+8.9% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? |
Yes |
56 |
0.125 |
$6.94 |
$-3.06 |
-30.6% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting? |
Yes |
276 |
0.010 |
$2.76 |
$0.76 |
+38.1% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
443 |
0.005 |
$2.21 |
$-7.79 |
-77.9% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
No |
100 |
0.013 |
$1.25 |
$-8.75 |
-87.5% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
206 |
0.005 |
$1.13 |
$-2.87 |
-71.7% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? |
Yes |
56 |
0.013 |
$0.72 |
$-4.28 |
-85.6% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? |
Yes |
109 |
0.005 |
$0.55 |
$-2.45 |
-81.8% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting? |
Yes |
111 |
0.004 |
$0.45 |
$-1.55 |
-77.7% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
528 |
0.001 |
$0.26 |
$-45.73 |
-99.4% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
483 |
0.001 |
$0.24 |
$-10.76 |
-97.8% |