| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? |
No |
16 |
0.760 |
$11.88 |
$1.88 |
+18.8% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
40 |
0.265 |
$10.67 |
$-5.23 |
-32.9% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
13 |
0.625 |
$8.06 |
$3.06 |
+61.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
10 |
0.655 |
$6.42 |
$1.42 |
+28.4% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
7 |
0.785 |
$5.61 |
$2.61 |
+86.9% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
Yes |
13 |
0.295 |
$3.78 |
$-1.22 |
-24.4% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
18 |
0.177 |
$3.17 |
$-1.83 |
-36.6% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? |
Yes |
30 |
0.100 |
$3.00 |
$-2.10 |
-41.2% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
31 |
0.095 |
$2.97 |
$-2.03 |
-40.6% |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? |
Yes |
25 |
0.115 |
$2.88 |
$-2.12 |
-42.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay |
Yes |
29 |
0.095 |
$2.79 |
$-2.21 |
-44.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.225 |
$2.14 |
$0.14 |
+7.1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
10 |
0.195 |
$1.95 |
$-0.05 |
-2.5% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? |
Yes |
15 |
0.130 |
$1.91 |
$-3.09 |
-61.8% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
Yes |
21 |
0.075 |
$1.59 |
$-1.37 |
-46.4% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
14 |
0.090 |
$1.29 |
$-3.71 |
-74.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.165 |
$0.85 |
$-1.15 |
-57.7% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
17 |
0.033 |
$0.54 |
$-0.46 |
-45.8% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
25 |
0.017 |
$0.41 |
$-0.59 |
-58.8% |