PnL (30d)

−$4

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

5W / 8L · 6 open

Win Return (30d)

37%

7W / 12L

Trades (30d)

19

across 15 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

−$0.34

avg win $17 · loss $10

Profit Factor

0.95

$67 won / $71 lost

Reward / Risk

1.66

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.5% 5W/8L	15	$207
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$8
🎬 Culture	—	1	$10

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

28 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	209	0.075	$15.69	$-4.37	-21.8%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	29	0.211	$6.21	$5.21	+520.6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	161	0.038	$6.12	$-7.88	-56.3%
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Yes	18	0.290	$5.18	$0.18	+3.5%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	82	0.056	$4.58	$-0.42	-8.5%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	31	0.115	$3.59	$-1.41	-28.1%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	36	0.100	$3.57	$-1.43	-28.6%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes	44	0.055	$2.44	$-1.56	-38.9%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026?	Yes	23	0.105	$2.39	$-2.61	-52.3%
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?	Yes	59	0.039	$2.30	$-2.70	-54.0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	11	0.209	$2.24	$0.24	+12.0%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	Yes	26	0.080	$2.08	$-5.92	-74.0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	51	0.038	$1.96	$0.96	+95.7%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	10	0.135	$1.35	$-0.65	-32.5%
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	16	0.082	$1.31	$0.31	+31.3%
Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	62	0.018	$1.12	$-0.88	-43.8%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	Yes	10	0.097	$0.97	$-0.03	-3.5%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	18	0.051	$0.92	$-1.08	-54.0%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	33	0.028	$0.92	$-1.08	-54.2%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	6	0.125	$0.74	$-0.26	-26.5%
Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?	Yes	4	0.170	$0.68	$-0.32	-32.0%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Yes	34	0.019	$0.67	$-0.33	-32.8%
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?	No	7	0.090	$0.67	$-1.33	-66.7%
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?	Yes	11	0.042	$0.44	$-0.56	-55.9%
Will Elon register any party before 2027?	Yes	13	0.033	$0.44	$-1.56	-78.0%